2nd largest private company end of June?

What you need to know

This market is asking: which company holds the second-highest valuation among all large private tech companies on June 30, 2026 — and is it Anthropic, OpenAI, or Perplexity? Think of it like a size ranking. SpaceX is widely understood to be the largest private company right now, so this question is really about who sits just below it. The market currently prices Anthropic as the strong favorite for that second spot, at 93%. The answer is settled by a single data source: NPM (a private-market pricing platform run by SecondMarket) and whatever valuation it publishes for each company on June 30, 2026. Whichever listed company has the second-highest price on that date wins. One important edge case: if a company goes public (via IPO) before June 30, it is removed from consideration — only its last private valuation counts, and public market prices are ignored. If NPM data is delayed, the market can stay open until July 4. No recent news provided directly addresses the valuation rankings of Anthropic, OpenAI, or Perplexity. One headline notes a SpaceX IPO debate on Wall Street, which is relevant context — if SpaceX went public before June 30, it would be removed from the private ranking entirely, potentially reshuffling who holds the top spots. That's worth watching, but no confirmed IPO has been reported here. The market is heavily one-sided at 93% for Anthropic, so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts that. The realistic scenarios that could change things: Anthropic completes an IPO (removing it from private rankings), OpenAI closes a massive new funding round that pushes its valuation above Anthropic's, or NPM revises its pricing methodology. These are low-probability events — but in a fast-moving AI funding environment over the next year, they're not impossible.

The odds right now

• Anthropic+5.0 pts (1w)95%
• OpenAI-5.1 pts (1w)3%
• SpaceX-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• Stripe-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Perplexity-0.7 pts (1w)0%
• Kraken-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• Databricks-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Neuralink-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• Anduril-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• Canva-0.3 pts (1w)0%
• Epic Games-0.3 pts (1w)0%
• Lambda0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 1, 2026

This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates.

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