3rd largest private company end of June?

What you need to know

This market asks a simple ranking question: among all large private companies (ones not listed on a stock exchange), which one will be ranked third by total valuation on June 30, 2026? The top two spots are currently held by other companies — this is specifically about who lands in third place. A Yes for OpenAI means OpenAI holds that third spot; a Yes for Anthropic or SpaceX means one of them climbed (or stayed) into third instead. The answer is determined by a single data source: NPM (a private-market pricing service run by SecondMarket) and the valuation it publishes for June 30, 2026. Whatever company NPM ranks third that day wins. There's a short grace window — if NPM is late, the market can stay open until July 4. One key edge case: if any of these companies goes public (IPO) before June 30, its last private valuation is used, not its public market cap. The market only counts private valuations. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market — they cover unrelated stocks, a village festival, and general market commentary. No recent news about OpenAI, Anthropic, or SpaceX valuations was provided. The kinds of developments that would matter here are new funding rounds, major valuation updates, or a company filing for an IPO before June 30. The market prices this heavily toward OpenAI at 92%, so the main honest uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts that — not whether it's a genuine close race. The real risks are specific: OpenAI could go public before June 30 (which would remove it from private rankings), a surprise funding round could push Anthropic past it, or NPM's data could shift. These are low-probability but real scenarios, which is why the market doesn't sit at 100%.

The odds right now

• OpenAI-2.0 pts (1w)90%
• Anthropic-1.0 pts (1w)4%
• SpaceX-0.7 pts (1w)1%
• Anduril-0.4 pts (1w)1%
• Epic Games-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Kraken+0.4 pts (1w)0%
• Neuralink-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Stripe-2.3 pts (1w)0%
• Lambda0%
• Databricks-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• Canva0%
• Perplexity0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 1, 2026

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.