Argentina Presidential Election Winner

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will win Argentina's next presidential election in October 2027? A 'Yes' on any listed candidate means that person wins the presidency — either in the first round outright, or after a runoff (a second vote between the top two finishers if no one wins a majority the first time). Right now, the market sees current president Javier Milei and Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof as the two leading possibilities, with former president Mauricio Macri as a distant third. The market settles on whichever listed candidate is confirmed as Argentina's next president, based on the final official result — including any runoff vote. The confirmation comes from credible news reporting first, and official Argentine electoral authorities (the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral) if there is any dispute. There is one important edge case: if a winner is not clearly known by October 31, 2028, the market resolves as 'Other' — meaning it would not pay out to any of the three named candidates, even if a result eventually comes. None of the provided news headlines relate to Argentina's 2027 election. That is not surprising — the election is still over a year away. The kinds of developments worth watching for in the future would include Argentine economic data (inflation and growth have historically driven voter sentiment), any changes in who officially declares their candidacy, and primary election results, which in Argentina's system can significantly reshape the race before the general vote. This race is genuinely competitive and has meaningful uncertainty on multiple levels. The Argentine economy is the biggest wild card: Milei's political standing will likely rise or fall with whether his economic reforms produce visible results for everyday people by 2027. The opposition is also not yet settled — Kicillof represents one wing of Peronism, but internal divisions on both sides could shift the field. Primaries, new candidates, and coalitions could all change the picture substantially. With over a year to go, there is real room for surprises.

The odds right now

• Javier Milei-0.5 pts (1w)48%
• Axel Kicillof-5.0 pts (1w)42%
• Mauricio Macri+0.8 pts (1w)5%
• Sergio Massa-0.8 pts (1w)1%
• Dante Gebel-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Juan Grabois+0.3 pts (1w)1%
• Myriam Bregman-0.3 pts (1w)1%
• Victoria Villarruel-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• Esteban Bullrich-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Juan Schiaretti-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Facundo Manes0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 24, 2027

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.