Brazil Presidential Election

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the next Brazilian presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026. A win means that candidate becomes President of Brazil — either by getting more than 50% of the vote in the first round, or by winning a head-to-head runoff in late October if no one clears that threshold in the first round. The three named candidates are the sitting president Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro (son of former president Jair Bolsonaro), and Renan Santos, a rising figure on the Brazilian right. The market settles on whichever listed candidate is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (the TSE, which is the country's independent electoral authority). That includes any second-round runoff — so the whole process, not just the first vote, counts. If the final result still isn't confirmed by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other' regardless of circumstances. In any dispute, the TSE's official numbers are the final word. None of the provided news headlines relate to the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. To follow this market meaningfully, the kinds of developments worth watching would be: official candidate registrations, new polling from Brazil, legal rulings on candidate eligibility (particularly around Jair Bolsonaro's political ban, which affects his family's positioning), and any major shifts in Brazil's economy or Lula's approval ratings. Even though Lula leads at 40%, this is a multi-candidate race more than a year away — plenty of time for the landscape to shift. The right-wing vote is currently split between Flávio Bolsonaro and Renan Santos, and how that consolidates matters enormously for a potential runoff. Lula's chances depend heavily on Brazil's economic conditions heading into the vote. Candidate eligibility could also change. With this much time remaining and a fragmented field, the current odds reflect uncertainty more than confidence.

The odds right now

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+2.0 pts (1w)42%
• Flávio Bolsonaro-3.9 pts (1w)29%
• Renan Santos+1.8 pts (1w)17%
• Camilo Santana+2.2 pts (1w)4%
• Fernando Haddad-2.2 pts (1w)3%
• Romeu Zema-0.3 pts (1w)2%
• Ronaldo Caiado-0.3 pts (1w)2%
• Jair Bolsonaro-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Michelle Bolsonaro+0.2 pts (1w)1%
• Geraldo Alckmin+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Tereza Cristina0%
• Tarcisio de Freitas0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 4, 2026

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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