China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how fast will China's economy grow in the second quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter a year earlier? GDP — Gross Domestic Product — is the broadest measure of a country's economic output. A year-over-year (Y/Y) growth rate tells you how much bigger the economy is than it was twelve months ago. The three choices here cover a range from 4.3% to 5.2%, and right now the market strongly favors a middling result in the 4.6–4.9% band. On July 16, 2026, China's National Bureau of Statistics will publish its first official estimate of Q2 2026 GDP growth. Whatever number appears in that initial release decides the outcome — even if the figure is later revised. The market settles into whichever bracket contains that number; if a number lands exactly on a boundary (say, precisely 4.9%), it goes to the higher bracket. One unusual fallback: if the Q2 report is never published, the market uses the most recent available quarter's data instead. None of the provided headlines directly address China's Q2 2026 economic output. The headlines touch on currency trends, insurance stocks, and geopolitics — none give a clear signal about GDP. The kind of news that would genuinely matter here includes China's official monthly output and retail data, any major stimulus announcements from Beijing, and updates on trade conditions, particularly around U.S.-China tariffs. The market leans heavily toward 4.6–4.9%, pricing that range at 78%, so the main open question is whether something pushes the result outside that fairly narrow band. The real risks pulling in both directions are trade tensions (U.S. tariffs could drag growth lower), domestic consumption trends, and Beijing's willingness to deploy fiscal stimulus. China's government also has an informal target near 5%, which shapes both policy and how figures are reported — making the true range of outcomes a little harder to read from the outside.

The odds right now

• 4.6-4.9%-5.5 pts (1w)78%
• 4.9-5.2%+0.5 pts (1w)11%
• 4.3-4.6%+4.4 pts (1w)7%
• 5.2-5.5%-3.4 pts (1w)1%
• <4.0%+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• 4.0-4.3%-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• 5.5-5.8%-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 5.8-6.1%0%
• 6.1%+0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.