Claude Mythos: Coding Arena Debut?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Anthropic's upcoming 'Claude Mythos' model will score highly on a well-known AI coding benchmark the day after it first appears there. The Arena.AI Coding Leaderboard ranks AI models by how well they perform in coding tasks, based on real user votes — think of it like a live scoreboard for coding ability. Three separate score thresholds are tracked (1520, 1530, and 1540), and each one is its own Yes/No question about how strong that debut score will be. The market settles based on the score shown in the Arena.AI Coding Leaderboard's 'Score' column — with style control turned off — at noon Eastern Time on the day after Claude Mythos first appears on that leaderboard. If the score meets or beats the threshold, it resolves Yes; if it falls short, No. Two important edge cases: the model must carry the 'Mythos' name or be explicitly labeled by Anthropic as Mythos-class — a regular Sonnet or Opus won't count. And if no qualifying model appears by December 31, 2026, the market resolves No. None of the provided recent news stories are relevant to this market. To track this one, the developments worth watching would be: any official Anthropic announcement of a model called Claude Mythos, or any Arena.AI leaderboard update showing a new Claude model with that name. There are two distinct layers of uncertainty here. The first is whether Claude Mythos appears on the leaderboard at all before the 2026 deadline — 'Mythos' appears to be an unannounced model name, so timing is genuinely unknown. The second layer is the score it would land on debut, which depends on model capability and how Arena's community-voting system settles in the first 24 hours — early scores can shift as more votes accumulate. The 1540 threshold sitting near 50% suggests the market sees real doubt about clearing that higher bar.

The odds right now

• 1520+71%
• 1530+64%
• 1540+45%
• 1550+33%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Claude Mythos model added to the Arena.AI Coding Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the Coding leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard whose official name includes “Mythos” will qualify. A model whose official name does not include “Mythos” may also qualify if Anthropic officially and unambiguously identifies it as a “Mythos-class” model or substantially similar Mythos variant. Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Opus, or another non-Mythos variant will not qualify unless Anthropic separately provides such official Mythos identification. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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