Colombia Presidential Election

What you need to know

This market is asking: who will win Colombia's next presidential election? The first round of voting is on May 31, 2026, and if no one gets more than half the votes, the top two candidates face off again on June 21, 2026. Right now, the market strongly favors Abelardo de la Espriella — a lawyer and politician from the Colombian coast — over Iván Cepeda Castro, a left-wing senator known for human rights work. Vicky Dávila, a journalist who ran as an independent, is given almost no chance. The market settles on whichever listed candidate is officially declared the winner of Colombia's 2026 presidential election — either after the first round on May 31 or the runoff on June 21. The official source is Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil), though credible news consensus also counts. One important edge case: if the winner is someone not listed in the market at all, or if results are unknown past December 31, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other' rather than any named candidate. None of the provided news is relevant to this market — the headlines are all about U.S. primary elections in Nevada, South Carolina, North Dakota, and Maine. There is no recent news here about Colombia's election. What would matter to watch for: candidate polling in Colombia, major party endorsements, shifts in the field of candidates, and any significant political developments inside Colombia between now and May 2026. The election is still nearly a year away, which is a long time for anything to change. Candidates can enter or exit, coalitions can shift, and scandals can reshape races quickly. Colombia's political landscape is fragmented, making it hard to predict who even makes it to a runoff. The market prices de la Espriella at around 85%, suggesting strong confidence — but early odds on elections this far out are often based on thin information. The real uncertainty is simply how much can change before voters actually cast ballots.

The odds right now

• Abelardo de la Espriella+4.0 pts (1w)85%
• Iván Cepeda Castro-2.0 pts (1w)16%
• Vicky Dávila (IND)0%
• Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)0%
• Claudia López (IND)0%
• David Luna Sánchez (IND)0%
• Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)0%
• Gustavo Bolívar (HC)0%
• Sergio Fajardo (DC)0%
• Juan Manuel Galán (NL)0%
• Mauricio Cárdenas0%
• Daniel Quintero0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 21, 2026

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

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