Crude Oil all time high by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether crude oil will reach a new all-time record price before the end of 2026. The specific target is $147.27 per barrel — that was the peak crude oil hit back in 2008, and it still stands as the highest price ever recorded. A Yes means oil smashes that record on at least one trading day. A No means it never touches that level by the deadline, no matter how high it gets otherwise. It resolves Yes the moment the official daily high price for front-month crude oil futures on the CME exchange exceeds $147.27 on any single trading day — it only needs to happen once. If that never happens before the deadline you chose (June 30, September 30, or December 31, 2026), it resolves No. The source is the CME Group's own published data, so there's no judgment call — it's a hard number checked against a specific price threshold. None of the provided news items are relevant to crude oil prices or energy markets — they cover unrelated local stories. There is no recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch: major OPEC production decisions, shifts in global demand forecasts, significant geopolitical events in oil-producing regions, or major economic data that affects how much oil the world needs. Oil hitting $147 would require roughly doubling from prices seen in recent years, which is a dramatic move — and the market prices it at only 17–24% even with the full year ahead. The main uncertainty is that oil prices are notoriously hard to forecast: they respond to wars, recessions, OPEC decisions, weather, and dollar strength all at once. No single factor controls it. The market is pricing this as unlikely, so the honest question is less 'which way will it go' and more 'could something truly unexpected happen.'

The odds right now

• December 31-4.5 pts (1w)24%
• September 30-1.0 pts (1w)18%
• June 30-1.1 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Related

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