ECB Interest Rates: June 2026

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the European Central Bank will raise its key interest rate by a small amount — specifically 0.25 percentage points — at its June 2026 meeting. The ECB's deposit facility rate is the rate it pays banks for holding money overnight; raising it makes borrowing more expensive across the eurozone economy. A 'Yes' on the 25 bps increase option means rates go up by that amount. 'No change' would mean the ECB holds rates steady. The market settles based on the official ECB announcement after its June 11, 2026 meeting. Whatever the ECB declares for its deposit facility rate that day determines the outcome. One edge case worth noting: if the ECB moves by an unusual amount like 12.5 basis points, the rules round that up to 25 bps. Also, if the ECB publishes no decision at all by July 31, 2026, the market automatically resolves as 'No change' — even if that seems unlikely. None of the provided recent headlines relate to ECB policy, European interest rates, or eurozone inflation. No relevant news was given to work with here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be ECB official statements, eurozone inflation data, or signals from ECB council members about their intentions heading into the June meeting. The market is priced at 99% for a 25 bps increase, which means it is almost entirely one-sided — there is near-universal expectation of a rate hike. The real uncertainty is not whether two equal sides disagree; it is simply whether something unexpected happens before June 11 that causes the ECB to pause or act differently than signaled. Surprise inflation data, a sudden financial shock, or a sharp shift in ECB guidance could change the picture, but the market currently treats those scenarios as very unlikely.

The odds right now

• 25 bps Increase+1.5 pts (1w)100%
• No change-1.3 pts (1w)1%
• 50+ bps increase-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 25 bps decrease0%
• 50+ bps decrease0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 11, 2026

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

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