Elon Musk # tweets July 11 - July 13, 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times does Elon Musk post on X during a specific 48-hour window, from noon on July 11 to noon on July 13, 2026? Under 40 posts means a relatively quiet stretch for him; 40–64 is a moderate level of activity; 65 or more would be an unusually high-volume weekend. It's essentially a bet on how active he is on his own platform during those two days. A third-party tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com automatically counts Musk's posts in that window, and whichever bracket that number falls into wins. The count includes original posts, reposts, and quote posts — but not replies, unless a reply appears on the main feed rather than inside a thread. One important edge case: deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within roughly five minutes of posting. The market settles once the 48-hour window closes on July 13 at noon ET. None of the provided recent headlines relate to Elon Musk or his activity on X during this window. No relevant news was shared. The kind of development that would actually matter here is something that tends to drive his posting volume up — a major news event he weighs in on, a political controversy, or a product announcement tied to Tesla, SpaceX, or X itself. Musk's posting habits are genuinely hard to forecast because they're driven by unpredictable things — his mood, breaking news, online arguments, or a quiet personal weekend. The market currently leans heavily toward under 40 posts, with about 71% odds, suggesting most participants expect a calm stretch. Given that lopsided lean, the main uncertainty isn't really a two-sided debate — it's simply whether something unusual happens during those 48 hours that pulls him into a heavy posting run.

The odds right now

• <4075%
• 40-6424%
• 65-892%
• 90-1140%
• 115-1390%
• 140-1640%
• 165-1890%
• 190-2140%
• 215-2390%
• 240+0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 13, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 11 12:00 PM ET to July 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

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