Fed Decision in July?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will change its key interest rate at its July 2026 meeting — and if so, by how much. The Federal Reserve controls borrowing costs across the whole economy: when it raises rates, loans and mortgages get more expensive; when it cuts, they get cheaper. A 'basis point' is just a small unit of measurement — 25 basis points equals 0.25%, which is the standard step the Fed typically moves in. So this is really asking: will the Fed hold steady, nudge rates up slightly, or nudge them down slightly in late July 2026? This market settles based on the official statement released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — the group of Fed officials who vote on rates — after their scheduled meeting on July 28–29, 2026. Whatever they announce as their new target rate range, this market compares that to the rate before the meeting and resolves accordingly. One edge case worth knowing: if the Fed moves by an unusual amount like 12.5 basis points, the rules round it up to 25. Also, if no statement is released by the end date, the market automatically resolves as 'No change.' None of the provided recent headlines are relevant to U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy. To follow this market, the kinds of developments worth watching would be: new U.S. inflation data, employment reports, public speeches by Fed officials hinting at their intentions, or major economic shocks that might push the Fed to act sooner or differently than expected. The market is heavily tilted — 93% for no change — so the main uncertainty is not really 'will they or won't they' in a balanced sense. It's more about whether something unexpected forces the Fed's hand. Surprises like a sudden inflation spike, a sharp economic slowdown, or a financial crisis could change the calculus quickly. The meeting is still over a month away, which leaves time for new data to shift the picture. But right now, the market is saying a move in July looks unlikely.

The odds right now

• No change93%
• 25 bps increase+0.9 pts (1w)6%
• 25 bps decrease-1.0 pts (1w)2%
• 50+ bps decrease1%
• 50+ bps increase0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 29, 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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