Fed Decision in June?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will change its benchmark interest rate at its June 2026 meeting. The Fed sets a target range for borrowing costs across the whole economy — mortgages, car loans, business credit all flow from it. A 'Yes' to No Change means the Fed holds steady. A 'Yes' to a cut or increase means they moved rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point (that's what '25 bps' — basis points — means: one quarter of one percent). This settles based on the official statement the Fed releases after its meeting on June 16–17, 2026. Whatever the Fed announces as its new target rate upper bound gets compared to the rate just before that meeting, and the difference determines the outcome. One edge case worth knowing: if the Fed somehow made an unusual move — say, a 12.5 bps adjustment — the rules round it up to 25 bps. And if no statement comes out at all by the deadline, the market automatically resolves as No Change. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to the Federal Reserve or U.S. interest rate policy. They cover mining companies, renewable energy, and data centres. There is no recent Fed-related news to point to here. The kind of developments that would matter are U.S. inflation reports, jobs data, or any public signals from Fed officials about their intentions. At 98%, the market is about as lopsided as they get — participants are nearly unanimous that the Fed holds steady in June. The realistic uncertainty here is not 'cut vs. hike vs. hold' — it's simply whether something unexpected disrupts that near-certainty before the meeting. A sudden inflation spike, a financial crisis, or a dramatic shift in economic data between now and June 17 could change the picture. Those events are rare, which is exactly why the odds sit where they do.

The odds right now

• No change+0.9 pts (1w)99%
• 25 bps increase+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• 25 bps decrease-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• 50+ bps decrease-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• 50+ bps increase-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 17, 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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