Fed Decision in September?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will change its benchmark interest rate at its September 2026 meeting — and if so, by how much. The Fed sets a target range for borrowing costs across the U.S. economy; the 'upper bound' is simply the top of that range. A 'basis point' (bps) is a tiny unit: 25 bps equals 0.25 percentage points. So this is really asking: will the Fed hold steady, raise rates slightly, or cut them slightly in September 2026? This market settles based on the official statement the Fed releases after its September 15–16, 2026 meeting. Whatever the Fed announces — hold, raise, or cut — that determines the outcome. One important edge case: if the Fed moves by an unusual amount like 12.5 bps, the rules round it up to 25 bps. Also, if no statement is published by the end date, the market automatically resolves as 'No change.' The Fed's own website is the official source. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market — the headlines cover topics like Indian politics and entertainment awards. There is no Fed-related news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be U.S. inflation data, employment reports, and any public statements from Fed officials about their plans heading into the September meeting. The main honest uncertainty here is that this meeting is still months away, and a lot can change. The Fed responds to economic data — inflation, jobs, growth — that hasn't happened yet. The market currently puts a 73% chance on no change, so the expectation leans toward holding steady, but a 20% chance of a rate hike reflects real tension. Surprises in the economy — a sudden spike in inflation or a sharp slowdown — could shift the Fed's thinking entirely between now and September.

The odds right now

• No change-1.5 pts (1w)75%
• 25 bps increase+4.0 pts (1w)20%
• 25 bps decrease-4.2 pts (1w)3%
• 50+ bps increase-0.3 pts (1w)2%
• 50+ bps decrease-0.8 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 16, 2026

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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