Fed rate hike by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before a specific meeting — and if so, at which meeting that first hike happens. The Fed controls a key interest rate (the federal funds rate) that influences borrowing costs across the whole economy. A rate hike means the Fed is making money more expensive to borrow, usually to fight inflation. Right now the market is pricing the October 2026 meeting as the most likely moment for that first hike, at 36%, with September at 25% and July at just 7%. Each option settles as Yes if the Fed raises its benchmark rate's upper bound at or before that specific meeting — counting from December 16, 2025 onward. So 'July' resolves Yes only if a hike happens by the July meeting; 'September' by September; 'October' by October. If no hike has happened by then, that option resolves No. One important edge case: if a scheduled meeting is delayed by more than seven days and no hike has been announced, that option automatically resolves No. Emergency hikes — rare but possible — also count. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to Fed rate policy. They cover dividends, a US-India diplomatic meeting, and a Strait of Hormuz warning — none of which directly speak to where US interest rates are heading. What would actually matter here: any Fed official speeches signaling a change in policy, new US inflation data, or major employment reports that could push the Fed toward tightening. The Fed's next move is genuinely hard to call right now. Rate hikes follow inflation — if prices stay elevated or re-accelerate, the Fed may act sooner; if the economy softens, they may hold. The market spreads probability across three different meetings, which itself signals real disagreement. Geopolitical shocks, tariff effects, and oil prices can all shift the inflation picture fast. And the Fed communicates carefully but can surprise markets. The timeline runs to late 2026, leaving a lot of room for the economic picture to change.

The odds right now

• October Meeting+2.5 pts (1w)35%
• September Meeting-4.5 pts (1w)26%
• July Meeting-1.5 pts (1w)7%
• June Meeting-0.5 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 29, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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