GPT-5.6 released by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether OpenAI will publicly release a next-generation AI model in the GPT-5.x line — something after GPT-5.5 — by a certain date. A Yes means anyone can access it, the way you'd sign up for ChatGPT today. A No means that hasn't happened yet by the deadline. Importantly, the bar is broad: it doesn't have to be called exactly 'GPT-5.6' — a GPT-5.7, a mini version, or even a specialized tool built on that generation would all count. The market settles Yes if OpenAI publicly releases a qualifying model — GPT-5.6 or any direct successor in the 5.x line, including task-specific or smaller variants — by the stated date, in a way anyone can access. A closed beta or invite-only preview does not count; it must be open to the general public. One key edge case: if OpenAI skips ahead to GPT-6, that would NOT count as a Yes. The release must also be genuinely accessible, not just a label appearing on a website. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be: any OpenAI announcement about new model releases, blog posts naming upcoming GPT versions, or credible reporting about their product roadmap for 2025 and 2026. The July 31, 2026 deadline is well over a year away, and the market prices it at 95% — so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected derails it, not whether two equally likely outcomes are competing. OpenAI has released models at a fast pace, which is why confidence is high. But things that could flip it include a major strategic shift, OpenAI jumping straight to GPT-6 without a 5.6 step, or significant organizational disruption — low-probability events, but not impossible over a long horizon.

The odds right now

• July 31-0.1 pts (1w)97%
• June 30+2.0 pts (1w)94%
• June 2364%
• June 15-55.0 pts (1w)14%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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