Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Gustavo Petro stops being Colombia's president at any point before a given date. A Yes means he's gone — through resignation, removal, detention, or any other reason that ends his presidency, even briefly. A No means he's still in office when the deadline arrives. There are two separate versions of this question: one ending December 31, 2025 (priced at 99% Yes) and one ending June 30, 2026 (priced at 8% Yes). The market settles Yes the moment Petro ceases to hold the presidency for any reason — resignation, impeachment, a court order, detention, or even a temporary removal that is later reversed. Importantly, just an announcement of resignation or removal is enough to trigger Yes immediately, even if it hasn't taken effect yet. If none of that happens before the deadline, it resolves No. The main sources used to confirm this are official Colombian government statements or a clear consensus among credible news outlets. None of the recent headlines provided relate to Gustavo Petro or Colombian politics. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kinds of developments that would matter are: any congressional or legal proceedings against Petro, reports of political crises in Bogotá, or official statements from Petro's government about his status in office. The two odds tell very different stories and that gap is worth understanding. The December 2025 deadline is priced at 99% Yes — meaning that deadline has almost certainly already passed with Petro removed, or there is near-universal expectation it resolved that way. The June 2026 version sits at just 8%, suggesting the market sees his removal as unlikely in this current window. The main uncertainty for the June market is whether an unexpected political or legal crisis emerges — something genuinely hard to foresee.

The odds right now

• December 3199%
• June 30+2.5 pts (1w)8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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