Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Beijing get on June 15, 2026? Specifically, it's asking you to pick the peak temperature for that single day — the highest number the thermometer hits before midnight. The options are individual degree values in Celsius, so a 'Yes' on 29°C means the hottest moment of that day lands exactly at 29°C, not 28°C, not 30°C. Think of it like guessing the afternoon high on a weather app, pinned to one specific day about a year from now. The market settles based on one data source: Weather Underground's historical record for Beijing Capital International Airport (station code ZBAA). Whatever whole-degree Celsius peak temperature that station logs for June 15, 2026, is the answer. The reading is locked in once the first data point from June 16 appears — so any last-minute corrections before that cutoff still count, but edits after don't. There's no human judgment involved; it's purely what that weather station reports. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That's not unusual — weather markets this far out don't have breaking developments to follow. What would actually matter closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for Beijing in mid-June, any unusual pressure systems over northern China, and the station's own readings in the days leading up to June 15. Weather one year in advance is genuinely unknowable with precision. Even the best meteorologists can't reliably forecast a single day's peak temperature more than about two weeks out. Beijing in mid-June typically runs warm — historically anywhere from the mid-20s to well above 30°C — which is why the market spreads probability across several nearby values. A single degree separates each outcome, so a slightly cloudier day, a stray weather system, or even timing of the afternoon peak could shift the result entirely.

The odds right now

• 29°C33%
• 30°C30%
• 28°C14%
• 31°C5%
• 27°C3%
• 32°C3%
• 26°C2%
• 33°C1%
• 34°C1%
• 25°C or below1%
• 35°C or higher1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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