Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: what will the highest temperature of the day be in Hong Kong on June 12, 2026? The three options are 28°C, 29°C, or 30°C — each representing a one-degree range. A "Yes" on 29°C, for example, means the thermometer peaked somewhere between 29.0°C and 29.9°C that day. Think of it as betting on which degree-band the hottest moment of that specific day falls into. The market settles based on the official "Absolute Daily Maximum" temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory for June 12, 2026, measured to one decimal place. Whichever degree-band (28°C, 29°C, or 30°C) contains that recorded peak wins. One important detail: only the first published figure counts — if the Observatory later corrects the number, that revision is ignored. The market cannot close until the Observatory formally publishes the data for that date. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this question. The headlines cover health, finance, and business topics — nothing about Hong Kong's weather. What would actually matter here is a weather forecast or climate report for Hong Kong around June 12, 2026, particularly anything noting unusual heat or a cooler-than-normal spell approaching that date. June in Hong Kong is reliably hot and humid, so the three options are all plausible — and they're bunched closely together. The market prices 29°C as the most likely at 42%, with 28°C and 30°C splitting most of the rest. The honest difficulty is that a single day's peak temperature is sensitive to small shifts — a passing cloud, a brief shower, or a slight change in wind direction can easily nudge the reading a full degree in either direction, making precise one-degree predictions genuinely hard even close to the date.

The odds right now

• 29°C35%
• 28°C29%
• 30°C27%
• 27°C7%
• 31°C7%
• 32°C1%
• 26°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%
• 24°C0%
• 23°C or below0%
• 25°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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