Highest temperature in Houston on June 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 15, 2026, how hot will it get in Houston? Specifically, it's asking you to pick a temperature range — like 84–85°F or 86–87°F — that will match the single hottest reading of that day. Think of it as guessing where the thermometer peaks on one specific summer afternoon at Houston's Hobby Airport. The market currently leans toward 84–85°F (35%) and 86–87°F (31%) as the most expected outcomes, with cooler ranges considered less likely. The market settles — resolves — based on the peak temperature recorded at William P. Hobby Airport on June 15, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever the single highest whole-degree Fahrenheit reading is that day, the range containing it wins. One important detail: the temperature must be a whole number (no decimals), and any corrections to the reading are only accepted until the first data point for June 16th appears. After that, whatever number is locked in is final, even if Weather Underground later revises it. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. What would matter to watch as June 2026 approaches: seasonal weather forecasts for Houston, any notable heat patterns in the Gulf Coast region, and short-range weather models in the days just before June 15th. Those are the kinds of signals that would meaningfully shift expectations. Houston in mid-June is reliably hot, but 'reliably hot' still spans a real range — the difference between a cloudy day with Gulf breezes and a dry, sunny day under high pressure can easily be 5–8°F. The market is spread across several ranges rather than concentrated in one, which honestly reflects how hard a single-day peak is to call a year out. Long-range weather forecasting at this precision — one specific day, a two-degree window — is genuinely difficult even for meteorologists working days in advance.

The odds right now

• 84-85°F33%
• 86-87°F28%
• 82-83°F19%
• 88-89°F12%
• 80-81°F3%
• 90-91°F2%
• 78-79°F1%
• 92-93°F1%
• 75°F or below0%
• 76-77°F0%
• 94°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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