Highest temperature in Manila on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 12, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Manila? There are three possible answers — 34°C, 35°C, or 36°C — and whichever range the actual peak temperature falls into wins. In practical terms, 34°C feels like a very hot, sweaty day; 35°C is noticeably more intense; 36°C is the kind of heat that makes it hard to be outside at all. The market is simply trying to pin down which band that single daily high lands in. At the end of June 12, 2026, someone checks the Weather Underground record for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport station and reads the single highest temperature logged that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whatever that number is — say, 34°C — the market resolves (meaning: is officially settled) to the bracket containing it. One important detail: the reading must be in whole degrees, not decimals, and only temperature revisions made before the first data point of June 13 is published will count. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of update that would matter here is a seasonal forecast for Metro Manila in mid-June 2026 — for example, whether weather agencies expect an unusually hot or wet start to the rainy season, or whether a La Niña or El Niño pattern is active, since those climate cycles can meaningfully shift typical temperatures up or down. June 12 is over a year away, which makes any temperature forecast genuinely speculative. The market currently prices a 34°C high at 98%, reflecting that this is Manila's typical range in mid-June as the rainy season begins to moderate extreme heat. But day-to-day weather is unpredictable that far out — a late hot spell, a cloudless day, or an unusually early monsoon could all shift the reading by a degree or two. The main real uncertainty here is simply whether something unusual happens, not a genuine coin-toss between the options.

The odds right now

• 34°C100%
• 27°C or below0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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