Highest temperature in Moscow on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Moscow get on June 12, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day at Vnukovo Airport — one of Moscow's main airports, used here as the official weather station. The three options are 30°C, 31°C, or 32°C (roughly 86°F, 88°F, and 90°F). Whichever one matches the peak temperature that day is the one that wins. It's essentially a weather forecast question turned into a market. After June 12, 2026 ends, the market checks the NOAA weather data for Vnukovo Airport and finds the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whatever that number is — 30, 31, or 32 — the matching option resolves as correct. One important detail: the result is only locked in once the first data point from June 13 appears on the NOAA page, giving time for any late corrections to the June 12 readings to be counted. The only recent item provided is a diplomatic meeting in Moscow on June 11 — unrelated to weather. There is no relevant weather news to point to here. What would actually matter is any meteorological forecast for Moscow around June 12: whether a heat system or a cooler front is moving through the region. Weather forecasting is genuinely uncertain even days out, and this market lands on a specific single day over a year away. At that range, no forecast is meaningful — it comes down to what weather pattern happens to sit over Moscow on that particular date. The gap between 30°C and 31°C is just one degree, which is well within normal forecast error. The market currently splits most of its probability between 30°C and 31°C, treating them as close calls, with 32°C as a smaller but real possibility.

The odds right now

• 31°C100%
• 32°C1%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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