Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will New York City get on June 11, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day at LaGuardia Airport — and which two-degree band that peak falls into. For example, a Yes on '94-95°F' means the hottest moment of that day lands somewhere between 94 and 95 degrees Fahrenheit, which is a genuinely hot early-summer day, well above NYC's typical June average of around 78°F. After June 11, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the peak temperature recorded that day at LaGuardia Airport (station code KLGA), as shown on Weather Underground's daily history page. Whichever two-degree range contains that single highest whole-number reading wins. The market waits until the first data point from June 12 appears before finalizing, so any late corrections to June 11's readings made before that cutoff still count — but corrections after that point do not. No recent news relevant to this market was provided — the only headline is about SpaceX and has no connection to NYC weather. That's completely normal this far from the date. What would actually matter to watch for closer to June 11, 2026: extended weather forecasts, any heat dome or high-pressure system building over the Northeast, and historical June temperature records for New York. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a week or two out, and this market ends over a year away — essentially no forecasting skill applies yet. Even close to the date, a two-degree band is a narrow target: a shift in wind direction or cloud cover can easily swing a daily high by several degrees. The market currently leans toward 94-95°F at 40%, suggesting a hot day, but the spread across three ranges shows real disagreement. Anything from a cool front to an unexpected heat wave could reshape this completely.

The odds right now

• 94-95°F46%
• 92-93°F24%
• 96-97°F24%
• 90-91°F9%
• 98-99°F1%
• 88-89°F1%
• 100-101°F0%
• 102-103°F0%
• 87°F or below0%
• 104-105°F0%
• 106°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 11, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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