Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 11?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: what will the highest temperature of the day be in Shanghai on June 11, 2026? It's a multiple-choice forecast — the three options are 29°C (about 84°F), 30°C (86°F), or 31°C (88°F). A 'Yes' on any one option means that temperature, rounded to a whole degree, turns out to be the peak reading that day. The market currently favors 30°C, but 31°C and 29°C are both considered real possibilities. After June 11, 2026 ends, the official high temperature recorded that day at Shanghai Pudong International Airport will be looked up on Weather Underground (the website Wunderground.com). Whichever whole-degree Celsius figure that site shows as the day's peak is the answer. One important detail: if the recorded temperature gets revised before the first reading of June 12 appears on the site, the revised number counts — but once June 12's data appears, the number is locked in, no further changes allowed. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The two headlines available are about a Canadian mining stock and Chinese AI investment — neither relates to Shanghai temperatures. To track this market, the kind of news that would actually matter is seasonal weather forecasts for eastern China in early June, or updates from meteorological services about any unusual heat patterns expected in the region. Weather is genuinely hard to forecast more than a day or two ahead, and this market runs until June 2026 — over a year away. Early June in Shanghai typically sees warm, humid days, which is why the options cluster around 29–31°C, but the exact peak on any single day depends on wind direction, cloud cover, humidity, and short-term pressure systems that nobody can know this far out. The three options are only 1°C apart, so even a small shift in conditions could swing the outcome from one bracket to another.

The odds right now

• 31°C71%
• 32°C21%
• 30°C8%
• 33°C2%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 11, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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