Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Shanghai get on June 12, 2026? Specifically, it's asking what the single highest temperature of the day will be, measured in whole degrees Celsius, at the weather station at Shanghai Pudong International Airport. The three options — 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C — are the competing answers, and the market currently leans toward 32°C (roughly 90°F) being the peak temperature that day. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged at Shanghai Pudong Airport on June 12, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever that peak number is — rounded to a whole degree Celsius — determines the winning option. The result is only confirmed after the first data point for June 13 appears on that site, and any last-minute corrections to the June 12 data made before that cutoff still count. After that point, the number is locked in. No recent news was provided that directly relates to this market. The kind of information that would matter here includes seasonal weather forecasts for the Yangtze River Delta region, or any early June 2026 temperature trend reports showing whether Shanghai is running unusually hot or cool heading into that date. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now, making any forecast extremely uncertain at this stage. Even on the day itself, the difference between 31°C and 32°C is a single degree — well within the normal margin of error for a forecast. Early June in Shanghai can vary meaningfully depending on whether a cool front passes through or humid heat builds in, making a one-degree gap a genuinely difficult call even for professional meteorologists.

The odds right now

• 32°C40%
• 31°C39%
• 30°C14%
• 33°C8%
• 29°C2%
• 34°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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