Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 15, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Shanghai? The options are specific degree values in Celsius — so it's not just 'hot or not,' it's a narrow guess at an exact number. June in Shanghai is early summer, typically warm and humid, with daily highs commonly landing somewhere in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius, which is roughly 77–84°F. After June 15, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport weather station and reads the highest temperature recorded that day in whole-number Celsius. Whichever temperature bracket matches that reading wins. One important detail: the reading is locked in once the first data point for June 16 appears — any later corrections to the June 15 data after that cutoff are ignored. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The one headline supplied is about an unrelated geopolitical event. For a market like this, what would actually matter is seasonal weather pattern forecasts for Shanghai in mid-June, or any unusual climate signals — things like an early heat wave or a persistent cool front moving through eastern China around that date. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a day or two out, and this market ends over a year from now, making precision nearly impossible today. Shanghai's June temperatures can vary by several degrees depending on wind direction, cloud cover, and whether a weather system is passing through. The market currently spreads probability across at least three adjacent values — 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C — which honestly reflects how close and unpredictable those outcomes are.

The odds right now

• 26°C38%
• 25°C26%
• 27°C15%
• 24°C9%
• 28°C3%
• 23°C3%
• 29°C1%
• 22°C1%
• 30°C1%
• 31°C or higher0%
• 21°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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