Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 12, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be at Shenzhen's main airport? The three choices are 30°C (86°F), 31°C (89°F), or 32°C (90°F) — roughly the difference between a warm summer day and a noticeably hot one. Shenzhen is in southern China and June falls in its hot, humid early-summer season, so all three options are realistic. The market is essentially asking you to narrow down which of those three degree marks the thermometer peaks at. After June 12, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground historical record for Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport (station code ZGSZ). Whatever the single highest temperature listed there for that day is — rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — that's the answer. The market can't officially close until at least one data point from June 13 appears on that page, confirming the full day's record is in. Any last-minute corrections to the June 12 data are accepted up until that point, but not after. None of the provided recent headlines relate to Shenzhen weather or climate conditions on June 12, 2026 — they cover unrelated political and social topics. There's no relevant news to draw from here. What would actually matter to watch: local weather forecasts for Shenzhen in the days leading up to June 12, any regional heat advisories for southern China, or early meteorological outlooks for the Pearl River Delta area around that date. Even short-range weather forecasts carry real uncertainty, and this market is asking about a specific single day more than a year away — which makes precision very difficult. The spread across just three degrees (30, 31, 32°C) means a small shift in wind, cloud cover, or humidity on that one day changes the outcome. The market prices 30°C as most likely at 40%, with 31°C close behind at 36%, so there's genuine disagreement between those two. Historical June averages for Shenzhen can inform guesses, but weather on any individual day remains genuinely unpredictable that far out.

The odds right now

• 31°C32%
• 30°C29%
• 29°C18%
• 32°C16%
• 33°C or higher10%
• 28°C0%
• 23°C or below0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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