Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 12, 2026, what will the hottest part of the day feel like at Tokyo's Haneda Airport — specifically, will the peak temperature hit 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C? Those numbers translate to roughly 75°F, 77°F, and 79°F — warm late-spring days, the kind where you might wear a light jacket in the morning but not need it by afternoon. The market is essentially a temperature forecast, broken into three candidate answers, and participants are weighing in on which one lands. Whoever wins is decided by one specific number: the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on June 12, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The temperature is measured in whole degrees Celsius — no decimals. The market waits until the first data point for June 13 appears on that site, then locks in the peak reading from June 12. If the official reading is, say, 25°C, the '25°C' outcome wins regardless of what other weather sources show. No recent news relevant to this market was provided — the one headline listed is about university courses and has nothing to do with Tokyo's weather. That's completely normal for a weather market this far in advance. The kind of news that would matter here is a seasonal forecast update from Japan's Meteorological Agency, or an unusually warm or cool air pattern developing over Japan as the date approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now — meaning current odds are based on historical climate patterns for mid-June in Tokyo, not an actual forecast. June 12 in Tokyo is early rainy season, when temperatures and cloud cover can vary quite a bit day to day. The three options are clustered closely together (24, 25, 26°C), so even a small shift in conditions could swing the result from one bucket to another.

The odds right now

• 26°C38%
• 25°C37%
• 24°C19%
• 27°C5%
• 23°C2%
• 28°C1%
• 22°C1%
• 29°C or higher0%
• 19°C or below0%
• 20°C0%
• 21°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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