Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 13, 2026, what will the hottest part of the day feel like in Warsaw? The three buckets are 20°C (about 68°F), 21°C (about 70°F), or 22°C and above (about 72°F or warmer). These are all fairly mild, pleasant summer temperatures — we're not talking about a heatwave versus a cold snap, but rather a narrow band of a few degrees on a single June day. Once June 13, 2026 is over, the official high temperature recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport — as logged by Weather Underground — determines which bucket wins. The reading is rounded to whole degrees Celsius, so 21.7°C would count as 21°C, not 22°C. The final answer is locked in once the first data point for June 14 appears on that site. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No relevant news was provided for this market. That's completely normal — a single day's local weather forecast wouldn't typically make headlines a year in advance. What would matter closer to the date is the actual weather forecast for Warsaw in mid-June 2026, particularly any unusual pressure systems or heat patterns over central Europe. Weather is genuinely hard to predict, especially more than a day or two out — and this market closes over a year from now. The three options are bunched within just a few degrees of each other, which means a small shift in wind direction or cloud cover on that specific day could swing the outcome. The market currently splits its weight fairly evenly between 20°C and 21°C, with lower odds on 22°C or higher, suggesting participants see this as a close call between two neighboring outcomes.

The odds right now

• 20°C46%
• 21°C33%
• 22°C or higher18%
• 19°C8%
• 18°C1%
• 16°C0%
• 17°C0%
• 13°C0%
• 14°C0%
• 15°C0%
• 12°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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