Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 14, 2026, what will the highest temperature of the day be in Warsaw? It's broken into buckets — the market is essentially a vote on whether that day's peak heat lands at 15°C (about 59°F), 16°C (about 61°F), or 17°C (about 63°F). Think of it as predicting whether Warsaw has a cool, mild, or slightly warmer early-summer day. Right now the crowd leans toward 16°C as the most likely outcome. This settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged on June 14, 2026 at Warsaw Chopin Airport, as shown on the Weather Underground website. It uses whole-number Celsius only — so 16.7°C would count as 16°C. The market can't close until the first data point from June 15 appears on that site, locking in the final number. Any corrections to the June 14 data made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. No recent news relevant to Warsaw's weather on June 14, 2026 was provided. What would actually matter here is a weather forecast for Warsaw in the days leading up to June 14 — specifically whether a warm or cool air mass is expected to sit over central Poland that day. Forecasts become meaningfully reliable only about 7–10 days out. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a week or two ahead, and this market runs until June 2026. Even on the day itself, a passing cloud bank or a wind shift can swing a high temperature by a degree or two. The three options are all very close together — just two degrees separates the lowest from the highest — so a small forecast error easily changes which bucket wins. That tight spacing is the core reason this is difficult, not any unusual circumstance.

The odds right now

• 16°C38%
• 17°C27%
• 15°C25%
• 18°C4%
• 14°C4%
• 19°C2%
• 20°C or higher1%
• 13°C0%
• 12°C0%
• 10°C or below0%
• 11°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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