Highest temperature in Wellington on June 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the highest temperature of the day be in Wellington, New Zealand on June 13, 2026? June is mid-winter in Wellington, so temperatures are cool. The three options — 14°C, 15°C, or 16°C — are roughly 57°F, 59°F, and 61°F. You're essentially picking which of those three narrow bands the day's peak warmth will land in. The market currently leans toward 15°C as the most likely outcome, with 14°C as the second guess and 16°C considered less probable. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on June 13, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees Celsius — so 14.7°C would count as 14°C, not 15°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for June 14 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. Whichever option — 14°C, 15°C, or 16°C — matches that final rounded reading wins. No recent news was provided for this market, which makes sense — it's a very specific local weather question more than a year away. The kind of development that would matter here isn't news, but rather short-range weather forecasts as June 13, 2026 gets closer. Historical climate data for Wellington in mid-winter is the main background context available right now. The core challenge is that predicting a specific day's temperature over a year in advance is genuinely very hard. Weather forecasts only become reliable within about 10 days. Wellington is also famously changeable — it's one of the windiest cities in the world, and a shift in wind direction can easily move temperatures by a couple of degrees in either direction. The three options span only 3°C total, so even a small forecast error tips the result. The market is pricing this as a close-ish call between 14°C and 15°C, reflecting that real uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 15°C61%
• 14°C27%
• 16°C10%
• 13°C2%
• 17°C1%
• 12°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C or higher0%
• 10°C0%
• 9°C or below0%
• 11°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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