Highest temperature in Wellington on June 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: how warm will Wellington, New Zealand get on a single day — June 14, 2026? Wellington is in the Southern Hemisphere, so June is mid-winter there, which is why the temperatures being discussed (16°C, 17°C, 18°C) are cool rather than hot. Think of it like a mild autumn day in the Northern Hemisphere — jacket weather. The market is simply asking which of three narrow temperature bands the day's peak warmth will fall into. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on June 14, 2026, as logged by Weather Underground. Whatever whole-degree Celsius reading appears as the day's peak on that site wins. The key detail: the market waits until the first data point from June 15 is published before finalising, so late-day revisions to June 14 readings can still count — but once June 15 data appears, the number is locked in. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The one headline given is about an investment firm holding ExxonMobil shares, which has nothing to do with Wellington's weather. To follow this question, the useful thing to watch would be short-range weather forecasts for Wellington from services like MetService NZ as June 14 approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and a single-degree difference is a very fine margin — the gap between 17°C and 18°C can come down to a passing cloud or a slightly warmer wind gust. The market prices 17°C as the most likely outcome at 54%, with 18°C and 16°C splitting the remaining probability. The honest uncertainty here is simply that daily peak temperatures are sensitive to small atmospheric shifts that even professional forecasters can only narrow down close to the day itself.

The odds right now

• 17°C58%
• 18°C23%
• 16°C20%
• 15°C2%
• 19°C1%
• 20°C0%
• 11°C or below0%
• 12°C0%
• 13°C0%
• 14°C0%
• 21°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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