Highest temperature in Wuhan on June 11?

What you need to know

This market asks: on June 11, 2026, what will the peak daytime temperature be in Wuhan, China? Wuhan is a large inland city known for hot, humid summers — by mid-June, temperatures are well into summer territory. The market offers several temperature ranges as possible outcomes, and whichever range contains the actual recorded high that day wins. Right now, the market has settled almost entirely on the '31°C' range, which is roughly 88°F — a warm but not unusual early-summer day for Wuhan. Settlement happens by checking one specific source: the Weather Underground page for Wuhan Tianhe International Airport (station code ZHHH). Whatever the highest temperature reading is on that page for June 11, 2026 — measured in whole degrees Celsius — determines which range wins. The market can only close after the first data point for June 12 appears on that page, locking in the final reading. One edge case worth knowing: if Weather Underground revises the temperature before June 12's first data point appears, the revised number counts. After that, no corrections are considered. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That's not unusual for a weather market set over a year in advance — there's simply nothing to report yet. What would matter closer to the date is any seasonal forecast for central China in June 2026, or real-time weather data as June 11 approaches. Weather a full year out is genuinely hard to predict with precision — even the best forecasting models lose meaningful accuracy beyond about two weeks. The market is currently priced at nearly 100% for the 31°C range, which reflects Wuhan's typical mid-June climate rather than any specific forecast. The honest uncertainty here is whether an unusual weather event — a cold front, a heat wave, or an abnormally wet spell — shifts the actual reading outside that expected range. The further out you are, the more that kind of surprise remains possible.

The odds right now

• 31°C100%
• 25°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 11, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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