How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking how many times the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during all of 2026 — and right now it is structured as separate yes/no questions for 0 cuts, 1 cut, or 2 cuts. When the Fed cuts rates, it makes borrowing cheaper across the whole economy: lower mortgage rates, cheaper loans, easier credit. The '0 cuts' option means the Fed leaves rates exactly where they are all year; '1 cut' means one 25 basis-point reduction (a small, standard-sized step down); '2 cuts' means two such steps. Each option settles based on the total number of 25-basis-point cuts the Fed makes in 2026, counting every official meeting and any surprise emergency cuts. The official source is the Fed's own post-meeting statements. One important edge case: a single 50-basis-point cut counts as two cuts, not one. Another: a tiny cut of 1–24 basis points also counts as one full cut. The market stays open until December 31, 2026, specifically to catch any last-minute emergency action. It can settle early if a count becomes mathematically impossible. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to Federal Reserve rate decisions or U.S. monetary policy. There is no recent Fed-related news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be: U.S. inflation data, employment reports, official statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and any signals from FOMC meeting minutes about the Fed's plans for rates. The market currently prices the chance of zero cuts in 2026 at around 80% — so this is not an even coin toss. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected forces the Fed to act. Inflation could stay stubborn, keeping rates on hold. Or a sharp economic slowdown, a financial shock, or a crisis could push the Fed to cut even if it does not want to. The whole year still lies ahead, and monetary policy can shift quickly when conditions change — which is why the small probabilities on 1 or 2 cuts still exist.

The odds right now

• 0 (0 bps)-4.8 pts (1w)77%
• 1 (25 bps)+7.0 pts (1w)16%
• 2 (50 bps)-1.4 pts (1w)3%
• 3 (75 bps)-0.7 pts (1w)2%
• 4 (100 bps)-0.5 pts (1w)1%
• 5 (125 bps)-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• 6 (150 bps)-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 7 (175 bps)0%
• 8 (200 bps)0%
• 12+ (300+ bps)0%
• 9 (225 bps)0%
• 10 (250 bps)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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