How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?

What you need to know

This market is asking how many large commercial ships cross through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean — during one specific week. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important shipping lanes, carrying a large share of global oil and cargo. A count of 25–49 ships for the week means traffic is noticeably reduced from typical levels; under 25 would be a dramatic drop; 50–74 would be closer to normal or moderate flow. The market settles on whichever ship-count range matches the official weekly total published by IMF Portwatch, a shipping-data tool run by the International Monetary Fund. It counts only specific vessel types — container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off, and general cargo ships — that Portwatch actually records crossing the strait between June 8 and June 14, 2026. One important edge case: if Portwatch's data looks clearly wrong due to a clerical error, the market may stay open briefly for a correction — but disagreements with other data sources don't count as errors. None of the recent news provided is relevant to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. There are no headlines about the strait, Persian Gulf tensions, oil tanker movements, or anything that would directly affect this market. The kind of news that would matter here includes reports of regional military activity near the strait, sanctions affecting shipping, or announcements from major oil-exporting countries about export changes. The Strait of Hormuz sits in a geopolitically sensitive region where conditions can shift quickly — military tensions, sanctions, or diplomatic events between now and June 2026 could all raise or lower ship traffic significantly. The market currently leans heavily toward 25–49 ships (73%), suggesting most participants expect below-normal but not catastrophic traffic. The genuine uncertainty is whether something unexpected — an escalation or a sudden easing of tensions — pushes the count outside that middle range. Normal weekly variation in shipping data also adds a small amount of unpredictability.

The odds right now

• 25-4972%
• <2521%
• 50-746%
• 75-991%
• 100+1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 14, 2026

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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