IPOs before 2027?

What you need to know

Each of these three markets asks the same simple question about a different private tech company: will it go public — meaning sell shares to regular investors on a stock exchange — before the end of 2026? Right now, SpaceX, Anthropic, and Discord are all privately owned, so ordinary people cannot buy their stock. An IPO changes that. A 'Yes' means the company made that leap; a 'No' means it stayed private (or was acquired or shut down) through the deadline. Each market settles as 'Yes' the moment the company completes its first public stock sale on any recognized exchange, confirmed by credible news, as long as it happens by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If the company is fully absorbed into or dissolved by another company before then, it resolves 'No' — but a merger where the original company survives as a parent or successor does not automatically count as a 'No'. The deadline is firm: no IPO by then means No. None of the provided news headlines relate directly to IPO plans for SpaceX, Anthropic, or Discord. One headline mentions activity at SpaceX's Starbase facility, but it covers operations, not a public offering. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: official IPO filings with regulators, named investment banks being hired to lead an offering, or direct statements from company leadership about going public. Each company sits at a very different point of certainty. SpaceX is priced at 100%, meaning the market treats its IPO as essentially done — the main risk is something completely unexpected blocking it. Anthropic at 82% reflects real but moderate doubt; AI companies face fast-changing conditions and no confirmed filing exists. Discord at 62% is close to a coin toss — it has explored an IPO before without following through. For all three, decisions ultimately rest with a small number of private executives, making timing hard to read from the outside.

The odds right now

• SpaceX+1.3 pts (1w)100%
• Anthropic-4.5 pts (1w)83%
• Discord+2.1 pts (1w)62%
• OpenAI-32.0 pts (1w)45%
• SHEIN+4.3 pts (1w)22%
• Remote-2.0 pts (1w)21%
• Mistral AI+5.0 pts (1w)21%
• Databricks+1.0 pts (1w)20%
• Glean+4.0 pts (1w)18%
• Applied Intuition+3.0 pts (1w)18%
• WHOOP+0.5 pts (1w)15%
• Canva+6.0 pts (1w)14%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

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