Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking: will Iran formally agree to hand over its stockpile of enriched uranium — the material that could potentially be used in a nuclear weapon — to some outside party before a set deadline? A Yes means Iran makes a public pledge to physically transfer that material out of its own control. A No means no such agreement happens in time. Crucially, just agreeing to enrich uranium less is not enough — the material must actually be promised to leave Iran's hands. The market settles Yes if, before the specific deadline shown for each option (ranging from June 30 to December 31, 2026), Iran publicly commits to transferring any portion of its enriched uranium to an outside entity — a foreign country, an international body, anyone not under Iranian influence. The pledge alone counts; Iran doesn't have to have physically moved the uranium yet. An important edge case: a deal that only caps enrichment levels, without transferring stockpiles, would not qualify. Resolution is based on credible news reporting confirming such a pledge. Recent headlines from June 2026 describe a significant military escalation between the U.S. and Iran, including U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets following the downing of an American helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. This is directly relevant: active armed conflict between the two countries makes a negotiated diplomatic agreement on uranium surrender considerably harder to imagine in the near term, though diplomatic breakthroughs after escalations are not historically impossible. Active military conflict between the U.S. and Iran is the dominant uncertainty right now. Armed escalation can either push parties toward a forced settlement or make diplomacy collapse entirely — history offers examples of both. Beyond that, Iran's domestic politics, the role of other parties like Russia or China, and exactly what terms any deal might require all remain genuinely unknown. The market currently prices the end-of-year deadline at only 38%, suggesting most participants see this as unlikely — the main remaining uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected breaks the pattern.

The odds right now

• December 3138%
• July 31+3.0 pts (1w)20%
• June 3010%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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