Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Iran will formally and explicitly give up its control over commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway that roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through. A 'Yes' means Iran makes a clear, public promise that ships can pass freely without needing Iran's permission, paying Iran fees, or facing Iran-imposed restrictions. A 'No' means that promise never comes, whether because Iran refuses, talks stall, or any statement Iran makes falls short of that specific commitment. For this market to settle as 'Yes', Iran must issue a clear, explicit public agreement — unilateral or as part of a deal — that commercial ships may transit the Strait freely without Iranian restrictions. Vague language about the strait being 'open' or 'stable' does not count; the bar is a specific, unambiguous commitment. The deadline is June 30, 2026. If no such statement exists by then, it resolves 'No' — even if Iran and the US are in active talks or a broader deal seems close. The news from June 11, 2026 paints a picture of active military tension, not diplomacy. President Trump threatened strikes on Iran and the US reportedly disabled a third Iranian-linked tanker, while an Iranian official warned of 'a different Iran' in response. Trump then cancelled planned strikes — suggesting the situation is volatile and fast-moving. This kind of military escalation is the opposite of the conditions that typically produce formal shipping agreements, which matters for how this question might unfold. The core difficulty here is that this conflict appears to be escalating, not cooling. Iran giving up control of the Strait would be a major strategic concession — historically, Iran treats that control as a core piece of leverage. Even if both sides want to de-escalate, the resolution criteria sets a very high bar: vague or partial statements don't qualify. The market currently prices this around 20%, meaning participants see it as unlikely but not impossible. The main uncertainty is whether any diplomatic breakthrough could happen fast enough and clearly enough to meet that strict standard before June 30.

The odds right now

• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?+4.5 pts (1w)24%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify. A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify. An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

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