Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Iran will officially quit the peace talks created by a June 14, 2026 agreement with the United States — and if so, by which date. On June 14, the two countries signed a ceasefire-style deal and agreed to spend 60 days negotiating a longer-term final agreement. This market tracks whether Iran formally walks away from that process entirely before a given deadline. A Yes means Iran made an unambiguous, official announcement that it is done negotiating. A No means it never made that announcement — even if talks stalled or relations soured. This resolves Yes only if an official Iranian government representative makes a clear, public statement that Iran is definitively ending its participation in the negotiations — not pausing, not suspending, not threatening to leave, but actually declaring it is out. The announcement must come through official channels, not leaks or rumors. Critically, a conditional statement — like 'we will leave if the US does X' — does not count. Neither does storming out of a single meeting. The bar is a clean, unambiguous declaration that the whole process is over for Iran. Once that happens, it locks in as Yes even if Iran later reverses course. The news from July 12, 2026 paints a sharply tense picture: Iran claims it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, the US has launched new military strikes, and a senior Iranian official warned that the 'era of one-sided deals is over.' These are serious escalations that put real pressure on the June 14 agreement. However, none of the headlines report Iran formally declaring an end to the negotiation process itself — which is the specific thing this market is watching for. The core difficulty is the gap between rhetoric and a formal, legally-clean withdrawal announcement. Iran's recent statements are harsh and confrontational, but the resolution criteria set a very high bar — the announcement must be unambiguous, official, and not conditional. Governments in tense negotiations often make dramatic statements without formally quitting. So the question isn't just whether relations deteriorate further, but whether Iran crosses the specific threshold of a clean official declaration. That distinction — between angry words and a formal exit — is genuinely hard to call.

The odds right now

• August 1525%
• July 31+11.0 pts (1w)18%
• July 2412%
• July 178%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.

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