Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran will make an official, public promise not to attack ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most important shipping lanes, connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. A Yes means Iran's government formally declared it would leave those ships alone. A No means no such declaration was made before the deadline. The market settles Yes only if an authorized Iranian official makes a clear, formal statement — through official channels — committing Iran not to attack ships in the Strait. The bar is high: it must be unambiguous, not conditional, and not just a leak or rumor. Notably, even if Iran later breaks that promise, the market still resolves Yes the moment a qualifying statement is made. No such statement means No. The available news points sharply in the opposite direction of a Yes. As of July 12, reports say Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, the US launched attacks on Iran following a ship being struck there, and Qatar condemned Iranian attacks as a breach of international law. The situation appears to be active military conflict, not diplomatic commitment. There is almost no uncertainty here in the traditional sense — the market sits at 2%, meaning participants see this as nearly impossible. The news confirms why: Iran appears to be actively attacking ships and closing the Strait, the exact opposite of a non-attack pledge. The only real remaining uncertainty is whether some extraordinary, last-minute diplomatic reversal could occur before midnight on July 12, which the market prices as very unlikely.

The odds right now

• Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 12, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.

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