Iran leadership change by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Mojtaba Khamenei — who is currently Iran's Supreme Leader — loses that position before a given date. A 'Yes' means he is no longer running Iran: removed, detained, forced out, or resigned. A 'No' means he is still in power when the deadline arrives. There are two deadlines being traded: June 30, 2026 (priced at 7%) and December 31, 2026 (priced at 28%), reflecting how much more time the longer window gives for something to change. The market settles 'Yes' the moment credible news sources agree that Khamenei has lost real control — whether through formal removal, detention, resignation, or being blocked from acting as leader. Even an announcement of a future departure counts immediately, before it actually takes effect. If none of that happens by the deadline, it resolves 'No'. The key phrase is 'de facto leader' — meaning actual power in practice, not just a title on paper. A consensus of credible reporting, not any single source, makes the final call. The most relevant news is a reported exchange of strikes between the U.S. and Iran, with Trump threatening further attacks and 22 nations condemning Iran over alleged lethal plotting abroad. These headlines point to serious geopolitical pressure on Iran's leadership right now. They don't tell us whether Khamenei's grip on power is weakening internally, but external military and diplomatic pressure is exactly the kind of development that could — in theory — destabilize a government. No news directly reports any threat to his personal hold on power. The core difficulty is that Iran's political system is deeply opaque — internal power shifts are rarely visible from the outside until they've already happened. The market prices the longer window at 28%, reflecting real but far-from-certain tension. External pressure from the U.S. and international condemnation adds instability, but Supreme Leaders in Iran have historically been very hard to dislodge. The biggest unknown is whether current military tensions could escalate into something that genuinely threatens the government's structure — or whether they stay contained, as past confrontations often have.

The odds right now

• December 31+2.5 pts (1w)30%
• June 30+1.1 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

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