Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Israeli ground troops will leave Lebanese soil by a specific date — either June 30 or July 31, 2025. A 'Yes' means Israel officially announces its ground forces have pulled out of Lebanon by that deadline. A 'No' means troops are still present and no such announcement has been made. This is purely about boots on the ground leaving — not about airstrikes, political agreements, or who controls what territory. The market settles 'Yes' the moment Israel formally announces that all its ground forces have left Lebanese territory by 11:59 PM ET on the chosen date. The announcement itself is what counts — a promise of a future withdrawal doesn't qualify. One important nuance: even if Israel still controls some Lebanese land, or even if smaller military incursions continue after, the market can still resolve 'Yes' as long as the formal ground-force withdrawal is announced. The Shebaa Farms area is treated as Israeli territory here, so troops there don't affect the outcome. No specific recent news was matched to this market. The most relevant things to watch for would be any ceasefire developments, diplomatic negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, statements from the Israeli government about troop presence, or UN reports on the situation in southern Lebanon. The market prices both outcomes below 15%, which reflects genuine doubt that a clean, announced withdrawal happens by either date. The main difficulty is that military withdrawals from active conflict zones depend on security conditions, diplomacy, and political decisions that are hard to predict far in advance. There's also a resolution nuance worth noting: an unofficial or partial withdrawal won't count — it requires a formal Israeli announcement. The gap between what happens on the ground and what gets officially declared adds another layer of unpredictability.

The odds right now

• July 31-3.0 pts (1w)13%
• June 30-0.5 pts (1w)6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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