June Inflation US - Annual

What you need to know

This market is asking: when the US government measures how much prices rose over the full year ending June 2026, will that number be 3.9%, 4.0%, or 4.1%? The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is the official scorecard for inflation — it tracks what Americans actually pay for things like groceries, rent, gas, and healthcare. A higher number means prices rose more over the past year. The three options here are very close together, so this is really a question about fine-grained precision, not a big directional bet. The market settles on whichever number the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes in its official CPI report for June 2026, expected on July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern time. One important detail: the BLS rounds its annual inflation figure to one decimal place — so 3.94% and 4.04% would both officially read as different values. If the BLS delays the report, the market stays open until the next scheduled release. If data still hasn't come by then, the most recent available monthly figure is used instead. One relevant piece of news stands out: US wholesale inflation — meaning prices that businesses pay before costs reach consumers — reportedly jumped to 6.5% in May 2026. That is a significant figure, because higher costs for businesses often get passed on to shoppers later, which could push consumer inflation upward. The other headlines cover European and Indonesian inflation stories, which are not directly tied to the US CPI reading. The wholesale inflation data is worth watching as a potential signal for where consumer prices are headed. The three options are separated by just 0.1 percentage points each, which makes this genuinely difficult to call. A single unexpected swing in energy prices, housing costs, or food prices in the last weeks of June could shift the final rounded figure from one bucket to another. The recent wholesale inflation spike adds pressure on the upside, but how much of that filters through to consumer prices — and on what timeline — is not certain. Rounding also plays a real role here: the true number could land right on the boundary between two outcomes.

The odds right now

• 4.0%43%
• 3.9%30%
• 4.1%22%
• 3.8%6%
• 4.3%0%
• 4.2%0%
• ≤3.6%0%
• 4.4%0%
• 4.6%0%
• 3.7%0%
• 4.5%0%
• ≥4.7%0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 15, 2026

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

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