Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how cool will Hong Kong get overnight on June 12, 2026? Specifically, it's asking what the single lowest temperature reading will be at any point during that calendar day. The three options are 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C — think of these as a warm night (26°C), a slightly cooler night (25°C), or a noticeably cooler night (24°C). For context, June is deep into Hong Kong's hot, humid summer, so all three options are warm by most standards. The market settles based on one specific number: the official "Absolute Daily Minimum" temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on June 12, 2026, pulled from their published Daily Extract data. Whatever that number is — say, 25.3°C — it gets assigned to the matching range, and that option wins. One important detail: only the first published figure counts. If the Observatory later corrects or revises that number, the revision is ignored. The market also can't close until the Observatory actually publishes the data. None of the provided news headlines relate to Hong Kong's weather or climate conditions on this date. The articles cover banking, a legal case, a Canadian trade bill, and a digital development story — none of which affect temperature readings. What would actually matter here is any meteorological forecast or weather advisory from the Hong Kong Observatory for June 12, 2026. June in Hong Kong is reliably hot, which is why the market prices 26°C as the most likely outcome at 83% — the main uncertainty is simply whether conditions dip slightly cooler than a typical June night, not whether there will be a dramatic surprise. Daily minimums can vary a few degrees depending on cloud cover, rain, or passing weather systems. The honest challenge is that one calendar day is a narrow window, and small shifts in overnight conditions are genuinely hard to pin down far in advance.

The odds right now

• 26°C87%
• 25°C12%
• 24°C2%
• 23°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 21°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 12, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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