Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest moment of June 13, 2026 feel like in Hong Kong? Specifically, it's asking which single degree (like 26°C or 27°C) contains the lowest temperature recorded that day. It's not about the average or the high — just the coolest point of that one day, which typically happens in the early morning hours before sunrise. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes an official daily minimum temperature, measured to one decimal place, for every day. Once that figure is published for June 13, 2026, the market settles to whichever whole-degree bucket contains it — so if the recorded low is 26.4°C, it resolves as 26°C. One important detail: if the Observatory later corrects that number, the correction is ignored — only the first published figure counts. No recent news relevant to Hong Kong weather or this market was provided. The kind of development that would actually matter here is a weather forecast for Hong Kong in mid-June 2026 — particularly any pattern suggesting an unusually warm or cool start to the day on June 13. June in Hong Kong is deep into the warm, humid season, so a low around 26°C fits the historical pattern — which is why the market prices it as the most likely outcome. But daily minimums still vary based on passing weather systems, rain, and wind. The date is still roughly a year away, making any precise forecast impossible. The main uncertainty is simply natural day-to-day weather variability, which no model can pin down this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 26°C67%
• 25°C28%
• 24°C4%
• 23°C1%
• 22°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 13, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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