Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: when Hong Kong reaches its coldest point on the night of June 14, 2026, what temperature will that be? The three options are 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C — all quite warm, which makes sense because mid-June is deep into Hong Kong's hot, humid summer. A 'Yes' for any option simply means the overnight low lands within that one-degree band. The market currently leans toward 26°C as the most likely outcome, with about half of participants choosing it. After June 14, 2026 ends, the Hong Kong Observatory publishes an official daily weather summary called the 'Daily Extract.' The specific number used is labeled 'Absolute Daily Min (deg C)' — the single coldest reading of the entire day. Whatever that number is, the matching temperature band wins. Temperatures are measured to one decimal place, so 25.7°C would count as 25°C, and 26.0°C would count as 26°C. Importantly, if the Observatory later corrects that number, the correction does not count — only the first published figure is used. None of the provided news headlines are related to Hong Kong weather or climate conditions. There is no recent meteorological news to point to here. The kind of update that would matter is a short-range weather forecast from the Hong Kong Observatory for June 14 — that information would typically become meaningful only a few days before the date. June weather in Hong Kong is warm and fairly consistent, but daily lows still shift by a few degrees depending on whether rain, cloud cover, or a brief wind shift pulls temperatures slightly up or down overnight. The three options here are separated by just one degree each, so even a small variation in conditions can change the outcome. The market is a year away, making any forecast essentially impossible right now — current odds reflect historical patterns, not actual forecasts, and real weather randomness makes this genuinely hard to call.

The odds right now

• 26°C47%
• 25°C28%
• 27°C18%
• 28°C5%
• 24°C4%
• 23°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%
• 22°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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