Lowest temperature in London on June 14?

What you need to know

This market asks: what will the coldest temperature of the day be at London City Airport on June 14, 2026? The three options are 11°C, 12°C, or 13°C — think of it as guessing whether the overnight or early-morning low will feel like a cool but mild June night (13°C, roughly 55°F) or a noticeably chilly one (11–12°C, closer to 52°F). The market is currently almost entirely convinced the answer will land in the 13°C range. The market settles based on one specific data point: the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport weather station on June 14, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground in whole degrees Celsius. Whoever runs that station determines the number. The market can only officially close after the first reading from June 15 appears, confirming the full day is complete. Any late corrections to the June 14 data are accepted right up until that first June 15 reading — after that, the number is locked in. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They cover topics from Malaysia, India, Pakistan, and general finance — nothing about London weather or meteorological forecasts. What would actually matter here is a reliable weather forecast for London on June 14, 2026, particularly overnight low temperatures. That kind of forecast becomes meaningful only as the date gets close. The market is priced at 99% for 13°C, which means the crowd sees almost no real contest here — the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens to push the low to 12°C or below. June nights in London typically stay mild, which makes 13°C a historically reasonable anchor. The genuine risk is a late cold snap or an unusual weather pattern that hasn't materialized yet. Since the date is still roughly a year away, long-range weather prediction is genuinely unreliable at this level of precision.

The odds right now

• 13°C99%
• 12°C0%
• 11°C0%
• 9°C0%
• 10°C0%
• 14°C0%
• 15°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 17°C or higher0%
• 7°C or below0%
• 8°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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