Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 11?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 11, 2026, what will be the coldest temperature recorded at Shanghai's Pudong International Airport — and specifically, will it fall in the 21°C range, the 20°C range, or the 19°C range? Think of it as a weather forecasting question about a single night and morning more than a year from now. The 'lowest temperature' is typically the coolest point in the day, usually in the early morning hours before sunrise. After June 11, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the official low temperature logged at Shanghai Pudong Airport that day. Whatever whole-number Celsius reading appears as the day's minimum — say, 21°C — that's the answer the market settles on. The key detail: only readings published before the first data point of June 12 count. If Wunderground later revises the number, it doesn't change the result once that cutoff passes. There's no recent news relevant to this market, which makes sense — it's asking about a specific weather reading more than a year away. What would eventually matter to watch for is seasonal weather pattern forecasts for eastern China in early June, or any climate anomaly signals like an unusually strong El Niño or La Niña event as that date approaches. Weather more than a year out is genuinely impossible to predict with precision — even the best forecasting models lose meaningful accuracy beyond about two weeks. That said, the market currently prices the 21°C outcome at essentially 100%, which reflects historical norms for Shanghai in early June rather than any specific forecast. The real uncertainty is whether an unusual weather event — a late cold front, an anomalous rainy spell — pushes the low to 20°C or 19°C instead. That's unlikely by historical standards, but not impossible.

The odds right now

• 21°C100%
• 20°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 14°C or below0%
• 15°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 17°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 24°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 11, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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