Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 14?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on June 14, 2026, what will the coldest temperature of the day be at Tokyo's Haneda Airport? The three options are 19°C, 20°C, or 21°C — think of these as roughly 66°F, 68°F, and 70°F. The lowest temperature of a day typically happens in the early morning hours just before sunrise, so this is essentially a question about how cool Tokyo's pre-dawn air gets on that specific summer morning. After June 14, 2026 ends in Tokyo, the market settles based on whichever single lowest temperature Weather Underground's records show for Haneda Airport that day. The number must be a whole-degree Celsius reading — no decimals are used. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point for June 15 appears on the site before it officially closes, and only temperature revisions published before that cutoff count. After that point, any corrections to the data are ignored. No meaningful recent news relevant to this market was provided — just a source name with no detail. That's not unusual for a hyperlocal weather question a year away. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date is a Japan Meteorological Agency forecast for Tokyo on June 14, 2026, or any unusual weather pattern — like an early monsoon arrival or a heat wave — affecting the Kanto region that week. Mid-June in Tokyo sits right in rainy season, when overnight temperatures can swing several degrees depending on cloud cover, rain, and wind. The market currently prices 21°C at 91%, reflecting that historical averages point that way — but a single cooler night, an early monsoon surge, or an unusual air mass could shift things. The main uncertainty isn't a deep philosophical debate: it's simply that weather, even a day out, carries real randomness, and this market resolves on one specific reading at one specific station.

The odds right now

• 21°C80%
• 20°C12%
• 19°C6%
• 18°C0%
• 16°C or below0%
• 17°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 14, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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