Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 15?

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest moment of June 15, 2026 feel like in Tokyo — specifically, which temperature bucket will the overnight low fall into? The three options are 16°C, 17°C, or 18°C (roughly 61–64°F). Mid-June in Tokyo sits at the edge of rainy season, so nights are warm but not summer-hot yet. The question is essentially: will that night be a touch cooler than average, or right around the typical low for that time of year? The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on June 15, 2026, as logged on the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — so 17.6°C would count as 18°C, not 17°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for June 16 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; anything revised after does not. The source is one specific weather station at Haneda Airport, so readings from elsewhere in Tokyo don't matter here. The only news provided is about a festival in Wilmington, which has no connection to Tokyo weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch for closer to the date is any meteorological forecast for Tokyo in mid-June 2026 — particularly whether a cold front or an early monsoon pattern might push nighttime temperatures lower than usual. Mid-June Tokyo weather is fairly consistent year to year, which is why the market is heavily skewed — it prices 18°C at around 96%. The main genuine uncertainty is not a two-sided debate; it is simply whether something unusual, like an unexpected cold front or an abnormally cool rainy-season night, pushes the low down to 17°C or below. Weather a year out is inherently unknowable with precision, and even a small atmospheric shift on that one night could move the reading by a degree.

The odds right now

• 18°C95%
• 17°C5%
• 16°C1%
• 14°C0%
• 15°C0%
• 13°C or below0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 21°C0%
• 22°C0%
• 23°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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