Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place

What you need to know

This market is asking a specific question: not who wins the Makerfield by-election, but who comes in second place. Makerfield is a parliamentary constituency in the north of England, and a by-election — a one-off vote to fill a single seat — is triggered because the sitting MP, Josh Simons, has announced he is stepping down. Three candidates are named: Robert Kenyon, Andy Burnham, and Rebecca Shepherd. A Yes for any one of them means that person finishes in the runner-up position on election day. The market settles on whichever named candidate receives the second-highest number of valid votes cast in the June 18, 2026 by-election. Official results are published by Wigan Council, and credible news reporting will be used to confirm the outcome. One edge case worth knowing: if two candidates tie on votes, the tie is broken alphabetically by last name — not by any recount or coin toss. If results are somehow still unclear by December 31, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other' rather than waiting indefinitely. None of the provided news headlines relate to this by-election — they all concern an unrelated event in Virginia, USA. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter to watch for: polling from Makerfield, candidate announcements, and any endorsements or campaign developments in the constituency ahead of June 18. The market prices Robert Kenyon at 79% to finish second, which is a strong lean — but it is far from certain. The main uncertainty is who actually wins the election outright, because the second-place finisher depends entirely on how all the candidates stack up. Vote share in by-elections can shift quickly compared to general elections, and turnout patterns are less predictable. Andy Burnham, a well-known figure as Greater Manchester's mayor, adds a wildcard: name recognition could either boost or distort expectations significantly.

The odds right now

• Robert Kenyon-1.0 pts (1w)79%
• Andy Burnham+1.3 pts (1w)17%
• Rebecca Shepherd+0.4 pts (1w)4%
• Simon Finkelstein-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• John Skipworth-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• Maria Deery-0.3 pts (1w)0%
• James Thomas Bryer-0.9 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 18, 2026

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.